Weather guessers

[eveled]

The best forcasts, show you each model and discuss how and why they differ. Not everyone wants that kind of forcasts.

They are mostly right more often than they are completely wrong. Which saves lives.

 

[Paul B]

One of the commandments obeyed by old pilots: Put not thy trust in weather prophets for when the truth is not in them they will not accompany thee among thy ancestors.

Funny thing that you said that. For a fair part of my career was briefing pilots on weather for where ever they might be going. The FAA who normally briefs pilots raised some hell that we were doing their jobs so the NWS told us we could no longer brief pilots. We were supposed to tell them to contact the nearest FAA offing for their weather info. I saw a lot of angry pilots. At the weather stations that I worked at there was also an FAA station next door, more or less so the pilots would go there, get their briefing and file their flight plan, then walk across the street and get a double check of the weather from us. Funny thing is they always liked our non-briefings better as they were more detailed. The only part I disliked about doing those briefings before and after we were told we couldn't do it anymore was we could advise a pilot that maybe he should reconsider the trip and possibly postpone until better conditions but we cold not say, no, you can't try to do that flight. On dark and dreary night I had a guy come in wanting to fly to Reno and he was drunk as a lord which didn't help. I was working the midnight shift that night and it was snowing like hell at our location and Reno was reporting WOXOF for their conditions plus heavy snow. The idiot took of anyway and disappeared into the night never to be seen again. I'd given him his briefing while working at Winnemucca Nevada and his plane was located on a mountain a bit past Reno over ten years after he took off. Talking with friends who were still working at Winnemucca were amazed he'd gotten that far before crashing into that granite mountain.
Paul B.

 

[Dan in MI]

Ahh, but cold is a relative term. Now if you said something like 25°F we could mostly agree that's cold. But to me if it gets below 65°F it's cold. For example something can be "colder" but still not cold.

The "relative" term is called relative humidity. 25*F low humidity is whole different animal than 25*F with high humidity. Once you get below zero it is almost always dry so it doesn't feel as bad.... as long the wind doesn't show up. Then we get that other relative term "wind chill."

 

[Dan in MI]

Right now we (MI) are in a special kind of weather. It was 28* degrees yesterday, we're going to hit near 50* today and by 4 am back to 30* with a 1/2" of rain in between. The prognosticators are in full scare alert.

"It's gonna freeze! The roads are going to be black ice everywhere! Run for your life!"

My real world prediction? Based on what they predict and not scream for the headlines. A big nothing burger.

Why do i say that? Yes, it's almost 50, yes, it is raining, BUT, the rain stops at about 11pm, we don't hit freezing temps again until about 4am. That's 5 hours for the roads to dry out before the freeze hits.

 

[Jeepnik]

The "relative" term is called relative humidity. 25*F low humidity is whole different animal than 25*F with high humidity. Once you get below zero it is almost always dry so it doesn't feel as bad.... as long the wind doesn't show up. Then we get that other relative term "wind chill."

I've always wondered who humidity is related to? Cousin to aridity?

 

[Oldrifle]

Sounds about right One site says dusting, another says snowmageddon, and they’re all supposedly looking at the same spot on the map. At this point the most accurate forecast is just waiting until it’s over and checking the yard.

 

[Dan in MI]

I should get a new job. Nailed it 95%. I missed a fine dusting that was occurring at 7am. It The only slick spots were secondary roads at stop signs. Everyone braking compacted the dusting to ice

 

[OVERLOADDED]

Define cold?

When the local Attorney has his hands in his own pockets.
Overloadded

 

[eveled]

When the local Attorney has his hands in his own pockets.
Overloadded

It was so cold I saw a chicken with a capon.