Bull Barrel said:
Nope. Bush was such a bad candidate he didn't get enough votes.
This is the reality of it.
Overall Voter turnout was around 5% higher in 1992 than 1988, and 6% higher than the next election in 1996. One can only believe that the spike in voter interest in 1992 was due to a viable Independent challenge to the two parties and two weak candidates. Both 'sides' include supporters who lean independent in the right circumstance, and 1992 was a bit of a perfect storm in that regard BECAUSE there were two relatively limp mainstream candidates.
Because of the our Electoral system, it's simply not possible to project with any authority that Bush might have won or lost without doing an in-depth study of each of the States' races. Someone may have done that, but if they have, I haven't seen the results of it. I did some research years ago on the topic, and it certainly wasn't clear to me that Bush could have carried enough States to win the EC without the challenge from Perot.
The fact is that Perot drew votes away from BOTH parties, and Bush was NOT a strong candidate by any stretch. People like to cite 1988 as some kind of barometer about Bush's popularity with voters, but Michael Dukakis was about as weak a candidate as you'll ever find, and he STILL won 44% of the popular vote, and carried 10 States against Bush. (Democrats ALWAYS win DC and always will) If Bush was a strong candidate, he should have mopped the floor with Dukakis the way Reagan did with Mondale. Bush won soundly of course, but largely because of the strength of Reagan's administration, and a terrible opposition candidate in Dukakis. As it was, Dukakis was so bad that a faithless elector (Democrat) went for Bentsen for President, and voted Dukakis for VP.
Bottom line: We will simply never know with any certainty whether Bush 41 could have beaten Clinton in that '92 race without Perot's challenge.