Lumber shortage and/or price increases

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I live in So. Cal. and looking at the extent of the major fires, the rebuild will be awesome... However saying that, we have seen that the time between the fire event and the permitting process to rebuild is more like two years.
There is a big hurricane damage re-build and I don't know if they have the same environmental hurdles that California had.
 
I was just thinking about this the other day. Lumber prices are certain to jump, which means that existing home prices are also going to jump. Property tax and home insurance is sure to follow.

Trump is really facing an uphill battle to bring inflation under control. The best bet is opening oil drilling and getting government waste spending under control. He can't take office soon enough to suit me.
 
I just received an email from a big box building supply chain stating that this may be an issue next summer. Rebuilding of hurricane and fire damage plus declining production are the pressing factors.
I'm not saying it's for sure or just hype BUT it is plausible.

I had that thought this morning as I have a building project slated for spring. Might need to buy cold lumber now.
 
Something to contemplate on. With Freight charges being what they are. I would think there is a practical distance you could afford to ship dimension lumber. You have to remember that Canadian Spruce and Fir, the stumpage is given to the mills to provide jobs. Lumber cut in SE US would not be practical to use on West Coast because of cost
 
I live in So. Cal. and looking at the extent of the major fires, the rebuild will be awesome... However saying that, we have seen that the time between the fire event and the permitting process to rebuild is more like two years.
There is a big hurricane damage re-build and I don't know if they have the same environmental hurdles that California had.
nobody has the massive missplaced environmental(I could have left out the enviro part of that word) issues such as California politicals...
 
Time to find and embrace new methods. I don't think most modern buildings have much wood in them.

But whatever they use will be in short supply and expensive.
 
More that a year ago Dave Rubin of the RUBIN REPORT moved to Florida and was remodeling parts of his home. He said it was going to be more than a 90 day wait for a STANDARD size front window to arrive.
That was well before the latest round of storms.
I feel bad for everyone having to rebuild from scratch.
 
I imagine most will be forced by practicality to sell the land and buy something else somewhere else.

The parcels will all be joined together and massive apartment buildings will be built.

Some areas wont be buildable anymore.
 
ard to forget the last shortage & huge price gouging, err, I mean increases.

Had to sit in my vehicle due to outside temps & due to covid not being able to be in the waiting room while wife had a small outpatient procedure done. My view was back lot of a large Home Depot store, for a couple of hours.
Watched the lift driver take the first stack of lumber off the 18 wheeler, go in side with it & come back to grab another. This time when he went inside with it he brought it back out. Was the warehouse full? or new instructions. The lift driver started stacking the wood outside, pallet after pallet. By the second truckload he was having trouble finding space in the big back lot, moving other stuff around. I sat & watched all this, having nothing else to do. I watched the 3rd truck get unloaded, the lift driver struggling to find room for it. Wife was finally released & time to go. But the material handler still had another 18 wheeler yet to unload. I felt I knew,,, lumber shortage my Holy red complected posterior. Absolutely no shortage there & if prices were reflecting a shortage it was gouging plain & simple.

Think we have same with reloading powder & primers right now. For 2-3 decades now a Finnish gun powder has been popular here in the US & it's traditionally been priced ~25% higher than out national brands.
Now, a lot of US powder is scarce & the Finnish powder is widely available plus,,,, it's now 15-20% cheaper than US powders. Coincidence? The price spread from then to now is just to much for coincidence IMO. Games played or total ineptitude is obvious. Their powders are channeled to war efforts the same as ours, yet they are not using that as a scape goat, & are delivering as usual.

I don't like being the way I'm becoming, but beginning to not believe a doggone thing anymore when it comes to any highly negative or positive reporting. All just seems to be drama, nothing else.
 
I imagine most will be forced by practicality to sell the land and buy something else somewhere else.

The parcels will all be joined together and massive apartment buildings will be built.

Some areas wont be buildable anymore.
Exactly...I suspect speculators are already viying to purchase these once premium properties at fire sale prices ( no pun intended)
 
nobody has the massive missplaced environmental(I could have left out the enviro part of that word) issues such as California politicals...
I just received an email from a big box building supply chain stating that this may be an issue next summer. Rebuilding of hurricane and fire damage plus declining production are the pressing factors.
I'm not saying it's for sure or just hype BUT it is plausible.
Financial advisor said next 3-5 years will be big time rebuild for California. To means another Covid type price jump.

We were going to build next to kids and grandkids in St. John Indiana 3 years ago
just the lumber bid for a 2700 sq ft ranch was $140,000. And they wanted us to install a 250'x8' wide sidewalk on village property which didn't connect or go anywhere. Different town on one end and wetlands on the other. As a result-sold the lot and now just ;30 away. The whole thing was nuts. My wife believes it was a method to destroy families and gamy run businesses. New homes in St John run $700k+ with little to no brick and real estate taxes approaching $8-9 thousand. Not cheap Indiana anymore.
 

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